How Do Gliders Get Airborne

2010, la reprise démographique confirmée

The figures for 2010 demographics are public and they are good, they confirm the Russian demographic renewal.

Birth and death

Continuing the trend in the number of births and deaths from 1999 to 2010.

• 1999 - 1,214,689 births and 2,144,316 deaths
  
• 2000 - 1,266,800 births and 2,225,332 deaths
  
• 2001 - 1311 .604 2,254,856 births and deaths
  
• 2002 - 1,397,000 births and 2,332,300 deaths
  
• 2003 - 1,483,200 births and 2370 .300 death
  
• 2004 - 1,502,477 births and 2,295,402 deaths
• 2005 to 1,457,400 births and 2,303,900 deaths
• 2006 to 1,479,600 births and 2,166,700 deaths
• 2007 - 1,610,100 births and 2,080,400 deaths
• 2008 to 1,717,500 births and 2,075,900 deaths
• 2009 to 1,764,000 births and 2,010,500 deaths
• 2010 to 1,789,600 births and 2,031,000 deaths

In 2009 the net loss (births - deaths) thus amounted to 248,000 individuals.

En 2010 la perte nette (naissances - décès) s'élève donc à 241.000 individus.Au début de cette année, je prédisais que la mortalité passerait sous le seuil des 2 millions de décès. Malheureusement la canicule de cet été à entrainé une surmortalité de près de 55.000 personnes. Sans cette surmortalité exceptionnelle, la Russie aurait eu moins de 2 millions de décès et n'aurait pas perdu 241.000 personnes mais 186.000.

Intéressant, la mortalité baisse sur différents points cruciaux:

- Baisse des suicides: 31.200 contre 34.700

- Baisse des accidents de la route: 26,100 27,300

cons - Decline in homicides: 31,200 against 34,700
- Lower poisoning: 13,100 against 14,900

Black Point, the increase in cardiovascular disease, from 1,029,900 in 2009 to 1,046,500 in 2010, probably Because of the heat wave this summer. These deaths represent 50% of the total number of deaths annually. The consequent improvement of the Russian health system, the changeover of generations (older people dying), all should see that figure decline quite sharply in the coming years.

Divorces and marriages

look now changing the number of marriages and divorces over the same period:

• 2005 - 1,066,400 marriages and 640,900 divorces
• 2006 - 1,113,600 marriages and 640,900 Divorce
• 2007 - 1,262,600 marriages and 685,900 divorces
• 2008 - 1,199,400 marriages and 703,400 divorces
• 2009 - 1,117,100 marriages and 699,300 divorces
• 2010 - 1133500 Marriages and 639,400 divorces

Divorce rates drop considerably, it returns below the threshold of 2005 while the marriage rate remains more or less stable.

The contribution of immigration

In 2009 a low migration and high immigration (thousands of entries and 334,000 naturalizations) led to an increase population of some 26,000 people. Yet immigration is rapidly declining in 2010, especially the CIS countries, resulting in almost certain that the number of naturalized citizens should be much lower since it was mainly CIS citizens . One can imagine that the people of Russia should stagnate or decline slightly this year. Must await information from the FMS in this regard.

Very good news, a record number citizens of the former USSR (12,000) benefited from the assistance plan in return launched by the Russian state in 2007, an increase of 30% compared to 2009 . Of course this is still low, but in 3 years, 31,000 people are already "returned" to Russia.

Brief Forecast for Russia

The mortality rate which was 16.4 / 1,000 in 2003 fell to 14.2 / 1,000 in 2009 and rose to 14.3 in 2010 due to the excess of summer 2010. Otherwise, he would have fallen to 14 / 1000 .

The coefficient of natality it evolves positively. Fell to 8.3 / 1,000 in 2001 and rose to a 2.6 / 1000 in 2010.

Life expectancy continues to increase from 68.7 years in 2009 to 69 in 2010.

My prediction: in 2011, births should exceed the threshold of 1.8 million, for the first time since 1990 (1,988,800 births). 2011 should also see a rather strong decline in mortality, probably of around 1.9 million. Therefore the net loss of population in 2011 should be around 100,000 people, demographic balance being achieved in 2013 , without any need for any contribution of immigration.

comparison with the EU

EU in 2009 had a fertility rate of 1.56 children per woman, 1.54 cons for Russia the same year. The coefficient
birth in 2010 is estimated to 9.83 / 1,000 against 12.6 / 1,000 in Russia.
The mortality rate in 2010 is estimated to 10.33 / 1,000 against 14.3 / 1,000 in Russia.

life expectancy of an EU citizen is 78 years against 69 years for Russia.
The infant mortality rate in the EU is 5.61 / 1,000 against 7.5 / 1,000 in 2010.