Regarding Turkish-European relations, the year 2010 has not only been disappointing compared to previous years. For many reasons, it has also removed the prospect of European integration of Turkey and revived questions about the likely outcome of the negotiation process open since 2005.
In many ways, the EU and Turkey do not seem to be on the same wavelength. The traditional annual assessment report, released in November 2010 by the European Commission, expressed once again the disappointment of it, as to conduct reforms, during the year, Ankara. It is true that many aspects of constitutional reform which affected the judicial hierarchy in the referendum of 12 September are ambiguous, as the opening of the Kurdish government has not produced convincing results, and that in some situations human rights and freedoms remain particularly shocking. But this assessment report also gave the impression that the EU was not interested anymore in the current political developments in Turkey, and frankly it was hard to understand. For, as we said in our review of internal policy (see our December 30, 2010 edition), the year just ended was also the scene of major changes in the political balance: historical perspective of the Army on the occasion of the case "Balyoz" and especially the last Supreme Military Council, defeat of the judicial hierarchy in the referendum of 12 September, or statement of fact with Kurdish political intensity and constantly surprising. If Europe is not very talkative about these changes or at least does not seem to take the measure is also perhaps because they derive less European requirements that they perform a proper dynamic speak Turkish.
To offset policy has been added this year an economic shift. Mired in a recession and a financial crisis that hit with one of Greece's neighbors Turkey, the EU Buffett has suddenly lost its appeal for Ankara, which has seen its growth to prance around 9% in 2010, while its unemployment, budget deficit and inflation receded. The Turkish Minister of Economy Ali Babacan, has even admitted in December, a German newspaper that he had no desire to belong to the euro area, at this time. Turkey, once champion of all kinds of deficits, is struggling to understand that Europe is struggling to manage its economic, and Greek economic migrants are now seeking leave to come to work ... in Istanbul or on the Aegean coast !
Alongside these economic and political shifts is also a form strategic stall which was confirmed in 2010, changing the status of the Turkish candidacy. Emerging country soon pointing to 15th in global economic, regional power, Turkey has emerged on the international stage, taking full advantage of his position as non-permanent Security Council UN ... His role in the nuclear issue Iran, along with Brazil, its pivotal position in the relations between the EU and NATO, its behavior in Afghanistan, showed a country anxious to bring home to his Western allies that they should accept now that it has flexibility against their positions are on major international issues. This new strategic posture of Turkey has revived debates about the compatibility of current initiatives of its foreign policy with the maintenance of its EU membership bid. Dropping strategic
we talked is perfectly illustrated by the contrast between this ambition and diplomatic blockade of Turkish accession. Only one chapter of the negotiations process, in fact, has been opened during this year. This is Chapter 12, "Food safety, veterinary and phytosanitary open during the Presidency of Spain, a country that is among the most favorable to Turkey. The Belgian Presidency's resolve to remain empty-handed in the second half of 2010. So in 5 years, Turkey has opened 13 chapters in total, and no one has closed. Most worrying, however, that because of sanctions imposed by the EU following the non-opening of Turkish ports and airports to the Republic of Cyprus and because of French opposition to the possible full membership for Ankara, the chapters that, at present, may still be open, be counted on the fingers of one hand. However, while a possible modification of the French point of view depends on the upcoming presidential elections, it does not appear that the situation in Cyprus is likely to change in the short term this situation. No re-election of Mehmet Ali Talat as president of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus for the benefit of a personality far more nationalist, evidently closed for some time, a window of opportunity that could offer hope for reunification Island. Although Turkey has the means to convince the government Lefkoşa, but it is also probable that she will keep this asset in his sleeve, as the Europeans did not show better disposed towards his candidacy. Since 2010 has also confirmed that the failure of settlement of the Cyprus problem contributed significantly to the blocking of the relationship between the EU and NATO. The Secretary General of NATO has failed to overcome the crisis in Cyprus to overcome the obstacles to Turkish Cypriot and Greek normalization of relations between the two organizations, which could not reach an agreement at the end of the year .
Of these adverse developments it appears that the Turkish-European relations have entered some stage of cooling and durable. Turkish officials have also expressed over the last few months a bad mood with regard to the unusual lack of enthusiasm for Europe vis-à-vis the application of their country, Recep Tayyip Erdogan even said his disappointment during an official visit to Helsinki in October accusing the EU of never having done much to expect a candidate to have his door and admitted the less economically developed countries. And yet the government The AKP says it will still join the united Europe. This stubbornness has not diminished during the year 2010, since its members have continued to fight the idea that a shift would result from new directions in foreign policy of Turkey. Turkish leaders have even convince employees that their initiatives in the Arab-Muslim world and that their status as regional power, were a boon for Europe. As for the Turkish public opinion, it certainly shows much less enthusiasm for the European project, but a recent survey Institute "Metropoll" Ankara stated that if they were consulted in a referendum today, the Turks still approve by a majority of 53% of their country joining the European Union.
The permanence of Turkey's application therefore shows that, despite their spectacular nature, the new options that are open to Turkey, the Middle East and more generally in the Eurasian space, can not supplant alliance with Europe and the United States, which remains as an axiom of Turkish diplomacy. Turkey is an emerging power, even economically fragile, and who lives in an environment that is dangerous. In such a context, its relationship with the West still remains essential to its security.
JM
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