Belgium it is now one reason: his presidency of the EU will be completed by the end of December, without a new chapter of the negotiation process between Turkey and Europe has been opened. She had to resign itself to a good step forward in the chapter "competition policy", but it will remain closed. This is the first time since December 2006, no chapter is opened. At the end of that year, the EU froze eight chapters in the process to punish Turkey, which persisted in its refusal to open its ports and airports to Cyprus. Yet since then, every presidency has been open one or two chapters, although this has not always been easy. European diplomats suggest a delay in Turkey in the conduct of reforms necessary to advance his candidacy. But some observers also point to higher European requirements, and generally unfavorable climate for further enlargement.
This new binding process of accession negotiations with Turkey could increase the lack thereof with respect to the attitude of Brussels. In recent months, in fact, Turkish officials have continued to attack the turcoscepticisme EU. In Helsinki, 20 October 2010, Recep Tayyip Erdogan had criticized the delays in negotiations between his country and Brussels, saying: "To say I'm disappointed. The countries of the EU, it does There is no other country in which it was asked to wait at the door for so many years. " The Prime Minister was surprised at the same time the EU has already admitted that country, he said, are far behind Turkey, both economically that policy. These comments periodically echoed by other officials (the President of the Republic Minister of Foreign Affairs, through the chief negotiator) have more weight now that the economic performance of this country's major political transformations and the inflections of his foreign policy, tend to change the nature of his candidacy to the EU. The whole question is whether, in fact, how long it will still be a response to a diffuse state candidate, whose economy has never been so much scope and is beginning to seriously look into other horizons.
As many European countries are seriously affected by an unprecedented financial crisis (including neighboring Greece), Turkey displays a record growth rate of 8.9% (since early 2010). This growth is "boosted", not only by strong domestic demand of businesses and households but also by a substantial expansion of foreign trade, outside of Europe (Russia, Middle East, Africa ...). While she refused last year, an IMF loan and it will soon be repaid one she had purchased in 2001, Turkey teasing now the 15th largest in the world GDP rankings, and is part of G20, has become a genuine emerging power whose development prospects are more promising than those of many countries in Central and Eastern Europe, already members of the EU . In many ways, with such results, in particular, a low budget deficit, and if we ignore inflation still high (7%), Turkey deserves to enter the Euro zone; an assumption that the Turkish Minister of Economy Ali Babacan said, however, does not wish for the moment, in an interview, A few days ago, a German magazine. Sign of this economic transformation in all cases: migration flows between Turkey and European countries are being reversed. For the first time in 2009, the Turks were more likely to return home to emigrate to the West.
At the political level, following the referendum of 12 September, the security system inherited from the coup of 1980 and the 1982 Constitution, which was worth regularly to Turkey under fire from European institutions, seems to touch end. Demilitarization under this system is less the result of reforms to meet the requirements of the application to the EU of Turkey's political dynamics, which, particularly since 2007, sees an open debate on issues previously taboo (denunciations of certain facts or challenges to the official story for certain periods, initiatives to find a political solution to Kurdish problem, strengthening civil society. ...) Of course, despite this opening, a number of spots remain (intransigence of the official Turkish position on the Armenian genocide issue, maintenance deadly armed clashes in the departments Kurdish southeast, the fate of Christian minorities, attacks on freedom of expression ...). Still, the politics seems much more lively and civil society seems much more active than in many countries having recently acceded to the EU.
It is also important to note that Turkey is also seeking to normalize its relations with its neighbors and increase its international influence. It has done this a lot more leeway than before in respect of its Western allies. Yet they have more need than ever to offset Ankara Iranian power, limit the consequences of the disintegration of Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and relay the Middle East's traditional areas of moderate Islam (Egypt, Saudi Arabia) have become very timid. Yet Turkey, disappointed by the reluctance of Europeans to him, showed several files that could be tempted to play his own card, or at least, to hear their difference (the Iranian nuclear refusal to increase its military contribution to ISAF in Afghanistan, missile shield ...). In addition, the Cyprus conflict, which currently appears to be the first handicap to the advancement of accession negotiations, now hangs as the relationship between Turkey and NATO, for while the Greek Cypriots refuse to associate Ankara to European security and defense, the Turks s preclude that Nicosia part in missions of this policy using the NATO intelligence. The secretary general of the Alliance, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, thought he could circumvent the problem of Cyprus by persuading the EU to sign a bilateral agreement with Turkey, which would have led to a NATO-EU comprehensive agreement. But Brussels has announced it A few days ago, that such agreements were not on the agenda. It is therefore likely that one effect of the stalemate of Turkey's EU candidacy could rebound on attempts to enhanced cooperation between the EU and NATO already compromised.
JM
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